Executive summary:
- We assess that the conventional power capacities, currently installed in the Ukrainian power system, can balance fluctuations of up to 15 GW of wind and solar
- The aging stock of conventional power capacities as well as a potential increase of power demand will create pressure for action in the medium and long term
- An integration of RES above 15 GW as part of a decarbonisation strategy will require the development of a power system that is much more flexible than the current one.
This assessment is based on a dispatch optimisation model approach (LCO OD Model Version 2.1). We consider the observed flexibility of the Ukrainian power plant fleet (nuclear, thermal, big hydro, pump hydro and cogeneration). Potential constraints from grid restrictions are not considered in the current version of the model.
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