“Low Carbon Ukraine” focuses on the Ukraine’s electricity market reform and power system development. We provide regular information and analysis on these topics.
Ukraine’s installed RES capacity of PV, wind, bioenergy and small hydro impressively increased by more than 50% in 2018 alone and will triple from 2,1 GW in 2018 to 6,7 GW in 2021, surpassing a 7% share of the country’s electricity generation. However, the further growth will slow down after retrospective FIT cut and delayed introduction of RE auctions. The increasing share of renewables, however, requires more flexibility in the system and smart market design without sacrificing the security of supply and electricity costs.
On the technical side, Ukraine’s power system is dominated by baseload generation and lacks interconnection capacities. The issues of resource adequacy, sufficient reserves and balancing capacities, regional allocation of new capacities and the curtailment of (excess) renewable energy are in the focus of our analysis. We developed a model of Ukraine’s electricity system to evaluate policy options to foster further RES integration.
On the regulatory side, Ukraine has started the electricity market liberalisation in 2019, and the reform goes slowly. The market is characterised by few dominant market players, the prices for households are strictly regulated and do not cover the total cost. Since the opening, the market has been under strong regulatory control, while the legislative framework remains volatile, wholesale prices are under strict control and limited by the price caps, and market power is not effectively addressed. LCU closely monitors the market development and provides advise on short- and long-term policy measures that will enable competition and attract new investments in Ukraine’s electricity sector.
Modelling Ukraine’s Electricity System
LCU developed a model of the Ukrainian electricity system to analyse development scenarios of the electricity system. The model provides the cost-optimal dispatch of the Ukrainian electricity system for every hour of the year and thus determines which plant types and transmission capacities should be used in which region of the country.Read more
LCU Publications on Ukraine’s electricity market
"Ukraine: Energy in the Spotlight Revisited" at University of St. Andrews
The Ukrainian electricity system has withstood unprecedented and targeted attacks by the Russian aggressor over the past two years. It has remained largely functional, even though there have been repeated temporary and localised power outages, such as during last winter. The coming winter will nevertheless be a challenge – around 50% of all power generation
Synchronising Ukraine's and Europe's electricity grids
Synchronising Ukraine's and Europe's electricity grids will be expensive, but hugely beneficial. This paper discusses the challenges and potential benefits in detail.
Increasing RES electricity generation through competitive auctioning of feed-in premiums
We propose regulatory changes that would reduce RES imbalances, ensure a more efficient dispatch of Ukraine’s electricity system and hence reduce the need for costly balancing energy.
Reforming Ukraine's electricity market
We assess the recent market development after the first year of market opening, and address a number of issues that we deem critical for ensuring the development of a stable, transparent and competitive market.
The first year of operation under the new electricity wholesale market
Our 5th issue of the MEMO series now takes stock of the first 12 months of operation under the new wholesale market.
NPP Analysis - May 2020
NPP electricity generation in May was significantly below the economic efficient level. This cannot be explained by Covid-related demand decrease or a high RES generation share.
Seven months of market opening - stocktaking
Frequent changes to the legal framework fail to address the structural problems. Loopholes undermine the market and speed up debts’ accumulation. Extended data transparency is an upside of the reform.
Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Nov 2019 - Feb 2020
Progress of Ukraine's 2050 Green Energy Transition Concept. Legislative amendments to the electricity market. FIT restructuring issues. Signing of gas transit deal. Regulatory framework on energy storage. Carbon taxation.