Summary:

We analyse the impact of different sets of RES quotas on the Ukrainian electricity system. In our best-case scenario Ukraine would construct 3 GW of wind and solar based on existing contracts (pre-PPAs) and set RES auction quotas of 1.6 GW until 2025. The corresponding annual auctioning quotas for wind, solar, bioenergy and small hydro can be found in the table below. This pathway has four advantages over other analysed pathways.

1. It provides investment security by recognising the legal status of existing contracts and ensuring a stable flow of auctions. A predictable project pipeline will allow investors to develop a sustainable local supply industry and reduce cost of future RES deployment in Ukraine.
2. It enables a RES share of above 20% in 2025 – which is better aligned with the political goal of increasing the RES share in the future.
3. The higher share of wind quotas reduces system cost.
4. The requirements for additional flexibility (3 – 3.5 GW by 2023) compared to a system without any new quotas are limited – while keeping supply-security at high levels. But reducing forecast errors and making the system even more flexible would allow to reduce coal generation markedly.