For the annual meeting of the OECD’S Green Action Task Force, we contributed a background study analysing the impact of the war in Ukraine on climate and energy policies in eight countries of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership and Central Asia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

We find that:

• Globally, countries will face strong incentives to lower domestic consumption of fossil fuels due to high and unpredictable prices and supply issues, such as increased demand for non-Russian fossil fuels
• Exporters of energy and/or metals will be incentivised to increase exports but may be constrained by capacity or logistical difficulties
• Countries with closer ties to Russia may have access to discounted energy imports, weakening incentives to conserve energy or invest in renewables
• However, this is counteracted by a new energy security paradigm emerging in the region. Domestic renewable energy sources provide an attractive alternative to increasingly price-volatile fossil fuel imports
• A weaker global and regional macroeconomic situation will lead to a more challenging context for ambitious domestic climate policy in the region
• Conversely, reduced growth may lead to lower emissions in the short run