Low Carbon Ukraine | Publications

May 6, 2022 — Policy Briefing

Economic reasons for a green reconstruction programme for Ukraine

Ukraine faces massive reconstruction needs in the aftermath of the Russian invasion. A reconstruction programme should be focussed on low-carbon technologies taking into account the cost reduction of green technologies, Ukraine’s climate policy obligations and EU accession perspective, elevated global fossil energy prices and price volatility, as well as energy independence from Russia.

Economic reasons for a green reconstruction programme for Ukraine

February 28, 2022 — Policy Briefing

Ukraine’s power plant park: Optimal configuration in 2032 and investment needs in the transition phase

Ukraine’s electricity sector will play a salient role in decarbonising the economy. A cost-optimal configuration of the power plant park in 2032 implies a complete replacement of coal-fired power generation by renewables and gas turbines. In the transition phase, around EUR 1.5 bn per year will be necessary to finance those new generation technologies.

Ukraine’s power plant park: Optimal configuration in 2032 and investment needs in the transition phase

February 7, 2022 — Policy Briefing

Investment needs for reaching the 2030 NDC targets: An explanatory note

Ukraine needs €47bn of additional investments to reach 2NDC emission targets. The €102bn figure often mentioned includes €55bn of regular investment unrelated to NDC. Ukraine’s investment need still is high, but not as high as often mentioned. Additionally, efforts must be undertaken to re-channel some of the €55bn into “green” projects. A carbon price would be a crucial instrument to achieve this.

Investment needs for reaching the 2030 NDC targets: An explanatory note

October 28, 2021 — Policy Evaluation

The Ukrainian Housing and Utilities Subsidy (HUS): Targeting and Coverage

Summary: The Housing and Utilities Subsidy (HUS) is a social transfer meant to assist low-income individuals in the payment of housing and communal services. However, and despite its heavy weight on the government budget, many poor households are not awarded the HUS (only 50% of poor households received the HUS in 2018, and only 28%

The Ukrainian Housing and Utilities Subsidy (HUS)

September 23, 2021 — Policy Evaluation

Implementing the National Emissions Reduction Plan (NERP): How should Ukraine’s power plant park look like in 2033?

Ukraine risks significantly falling behind on implementing the National Emission Reduction Plan (NERP), a binding obligation towards the Energy Community (EnC). A debate about a possible revision of the NERP has started in Ukraine but so far focuses on relaxing the requirements of the NERP, including the deadlines already extended especially for Ukraine.

Implementing the National Emissions Reduction Plan (NERP): How should Ukraine’s power plant park look like in 2033?

June 4, 2021 — Policy Evaluation

Adequacy of the electricity system development implied in the NDC2-draft

Ukraine’s draft 2nd NDC (NDC2) envisions an economy-wide reduction of emissions from ca. 340 MtCO2eq in 2018 to ca. 290 MtCO2eq in 2030. It projects that the electricity sector will ensure roughly 45% of the total projected emission reductions from now until 2030.

Adequacy of the electricity system development implied in the NDC2-draft

May 27, 2021 — Policy Note

Reaching Ukraine’s energy and climate targets

This series presents ten Policy Proposals aimed at helping Ukraine reach its energy and climate targets.

LCU_Reaching Ukraine's energy and climate targets

May 10, 2021 — Policy Note

Energy efficiency in public buildings – 50% retrofitting target until 2030

Deferred maintenance and repair investments reduce the value of the Ukrainian building stock. A long-term retrofitting strategy is required for residential as well as public buildings.

Energy efficiency in public buildings – 50% retrofitting target until 2030

May 9, 2021 — Policy Note

Low-Carbon Transport Policies for Ukraine

Greenhouse gas emissions from transport have been slightly increasing since the year 2000. With the right policies, Ukraine can further decrease transport emissions and reach its mid-and long-term climate goals.

Low-Carbon Transport Policies for Ukraine

May 8, 2021 — Policy Note

Towards a decarbonisation of Ukraine’s steel sector

This paper considers the potential for decarbonizing Ukraine’s steel sector and gives policy recommendations that take into account the challenging international environment Ukraine’s steel sector finds itself in.

Towards a decarbonisation of Ukraine's steel sector

May 7, 2021 — Policy Note

A socially sustainable coal phase-out in Ukraine

A coal phase-out is an inevitable step for Ukraine on its decarbonization path. This paper proposes accompanying measures for the phase-out, aimed at dampening its negative impact.

A socially sustainable coal phase-out in Ukraine

May 6, 2021 — Policy Note

Synchronising Ukraine’s and Europe’s electricity grids

Synchronising Ukraine’s and Europe’s electricity grids will be expensive, but hugely beneficial. This paper discusses the challenges and potential benefits in detail.

Synchronising Ukraine´s and Europe´s electricity grids

May 5, 2021 — Policy Note

Increasing RES electricity generation through competitive auctioning of feed-in premiums

We propose regulatory changes that would reduce RES imbalances, ensure a more efficient dispatch of Ukraine’s electricity system and hence reduce the need for costly balancing energy.

Increasing RES electricity generation through competitive auctioning of feed-in premiums

May 4, 2021 — Policy Note

Reforming Ukraine’s electricity market

We assess the recent market development after the first year of market opening, and address a number of issues that we deem critical for ensuring the development of a stable, transparent and competitive market.

Reforming Ukraine’s electricity market

May 3, 2021 — Policy Note

Phasing-Out Consumer Subsidies. Prospects and Challenges for Ukraine’s Natural Gas and Electricity Sector

Fossil fuel subsidies have been a popular measure for governments, but have adverse effects. We propose a phase-out of consumer subsidies until 2022.

Phasing-Out Consumer Subsidies. Prospects and Challenges for Ukraine’s Natural Gas and Electricity Sector

May 2, 2021 — Policy Note

A revision of Ukraine’s Carbon Tax

Ukraine’s current carbon tax is too low to effectively reduce emissions. We propose a carbon tax of EUR 39/t CO2 and discuss the implications.

A Revision of Ukraine’s Carbon Tax

May 1, 2021 — Policy Note

Financing options for “green” policy measures

This paper proposes tailor-made green financing schemes consisting of public and private funding. We elaborate on certain financial instruments typical for green measures such as green bonds.

Financing options for ‘green’ policy measures

December 9, 2020 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Jun-Dec 2020

Renewable electricity generation has reached record level. A decline in nuclear output could be observed in May 2020 that was not justified by technical or economic reasons, lower electricity demand or RES deployment.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (12/2020, en)

September 23, 2020 — Monitor of Electricity Market Opening

The first year of operation under the new electricity wholesale market

Our 5th issue of the MEMO series now takes stock of the first 12 months of operation under the new wholesale market.

MEMO #5 (09/2020, en)

September 3, 2020 — Policy Briefing

NPP Analysis – May 2020

NPP electricity generation in May was significantly below the economic efficient level. This cannot be explained by Covid-related demand decrease or a high RES generation share.

NPP Analysis May 2020 (08/10/2020, PB, en)

July 15, 2020 — Policy Briefing

Regulating Curtailment

Curtailing and compensating RES can be cheaper than taking up 100% of RES electricity through investment into conventional plant park or transmission.

Regulating Curtailment (01/20/2020, PB, en)

June 10, 2020 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Mar-May 2020

Anti-crisis measures in electricity sector. Ukrenergo certification. Gas market. RES support scheme. Electricity market opening. Electricity consumption decrease due to Covid-19.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (06/2020, en)

May 26, 2020 — Policy Briefing

The effects of COVID-19 on electricity consumption in 2020

2020 electricity consumption might decrease by 5% (best case) to 8% (worst-case scenario).

COVID-19 effects: electricity consumption (05/26/2019, PB, en)

April 23, 2020 — Monitor of Electricity Market Opening

Seven months of market opening – stocktaking

Frequent changes to the legal framework fail to address the structural problems. Loopholes undermine the market and speed up debts’ accumulation. Extended data transparency is an upside of the reform.

MEMO #4 (04/2020, en)

March 20, 2020 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Nov 2019 – Feb 2020

Progress of Ukraine’s 2050 Green Energy Transition Concept. Legislative amendments to the electricity market. FIT restructuring issues. Signing of gas transit deal. Regulatory framework on energy storage. Carbon taxation.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (03/2020, en)

March 5, 2020 — Policy Evaluation

Recommendations on energy storage

Ukraine’s electricity market does not need state support for energy storage projects. It needs a properly working electricity market aligned with the EU 4th Energy Package to boost the flexibility of the grid.

Energy storage (03/05/2020, PE, en)

December 20, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Electricity for all

Basic technological & economic features of electricity markets (in EU countries). Challenges in market development: new forms of trading, sector coupling and digitalisation.

Electricity for all (20/12/2019, PB, en)

December 14, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Renewable Energy in Ukraine

Further RES expansion is needed to replace the ageing power plant fleet and to sustain energy security. To account for a higher variability in the system, different instruments can be utilized.

Renewable Energy in Ukraine (12/20/2019, PB, en)

December 13, 2019 — Policy Paper

RES quotas for 2020 – 2024

Different sets of RES quotas are analyzed. In the best-case scenario, 3 GW wind & solar are built and RES quotas set at 1.6 GW, enabling a RES share above 20% in 2025.

RES quotas 2020-2024 (12/19/2019, PP, en)

December 10, 2019 — Policy Briefing

CO2 taxation in Ukraine

Tax revenues from a potential upstream carbon tax in Ukraine of 27UAH/t CO2 are estimated between UAH 5.6 and 6.1 bln. Price increases from taxation are strongest for coal (+3.5%-4.3%).

CO2 Taxation (12/19/2019, PB, en)

November 21, 2019 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Aug-Nov 2019

Progress on gas TSO unbundling and certification, corporatisation and certification of Ukrenergo, licensing in upstream sector. Analysis and recommendations on ESU action plan implementation.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (11/2019, en)

November 21, 2019 — Policy Note

Limiting the cost of feed-in-tariff subsidies

Assessment of feed-in-tariff, related expenditures for RES, current scheme of financing, impact on state budget and electricity prices. Analysis of risks of retroactive change in support scheme.

FIT subsidies (11/21/2019, PN, en)

November 21, 2019 — Policy Note

Energy Strategy 2035: Lessons learnt from implementation

Assessment of the progress on the ESU 2035 action plan implementation, analysis of gaps, barriers and the lessons learned, providing recommendations on further improvement of the process.

Review of Energy Strategy (11/21/2019, PN, en)

November 8, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Russian Ukrainian Electricity Trade

Increasing electricity imports from Russia can help to improve competition, reduce prices and reduce emissions. But it should be regulated to minimize adverse effects.

Russian-Ukrainian Electricity Trade (12/20/2019, PB, en)

October 17, 2019 — Policy Paper

Curtailment of renewable electricity as a flexibility option

Curtailment should be considered as a regular flexibility option. It helps to mitigate the green-coal paradox and to reduce system emisions from 94 to 40 Mt CO2.

Renewable electricity curtailment (10/17/2019, PP, en)

September 30, 2019 — Monitor of Electricity Market Opening

Developments on the electricity market Sep 2019

Market power remains strong and starts exploiting balancing market. Changes to PSO does not help the competition. Prices in the IPS start to drop as nuclear power ramps up production.

MEMO #3 (09/2019, en)

September 23, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Aspects of RES-support in Ukraine

The Ukrainian electricity system can absorb fluctuations of higher RES shares and support a further expansion with RES auctions.

Aspects of RES-support (09/23/2019, PB, en)

September 20, 2019 — Policy Paper

Limiting the cost of feed-in-tariff subsidies

The rising cost of RE support pushes electricity prices beyond affordable level in Ukraine. Yet the revision of the established FIT scheme should be carefully designed and consider potential risks.

FIT policy options (09/20/2019, PP, en)

August 23, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Making Ukraine’s Electricity Market work for Ukrainians

Analysis of (inflated) wholesale prices after electricity market opening. What could be done in the short and long run to fix this?

Recommendations: functioning electricity market (08/23/2019, PB, en)

August 19, 2019 — Policy Note

The Benefits of RES Curtailment in Ukraine

Analysis of curtailment as a flexibility option in the short and long run, including mitigation of the ‘green-coal paradox’ and comparison with hardware solutions. Overview of curtailment experiences across the world.

Benefits of RES Curtailment (08/19/2019, PN, en)

August 19, 2019 — Policy Note

Energy and Climate Policy Priorities for the New Administration

Recommendations on making energy markets competitive, increasing RES share, structural change in coal sector and regions, investments in infrastructure, energy efficiency in residential sector.

Policy Priorities for New Administration (08/19/2019, PN, en)

August 12, 2019 — Monitor of Electricity Market Opening

Developments on the electricity market Jul-Aug 2019

Prices are stable as the market shows no signs of effective competition. Increase of import to the BEI does not affect prices. Price caps are higher than the estimated marginal costs of coal generators.

MEMO #2 (08/2019, en)

August 12, 2019 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Apr-Jul 2019

Progress on ensuring of the NEURC’s independance, unbundling and PSO on gas market, and launching the NECP development process. Key priorities in energy policy for the new administration.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (08/2019, en)

July 19, 2019 — Monitor of Electricity Market Opening

The first two weeks of market opening

Ukraine has finally opened its electricity market despite many concerns. Prices are high, some market segments do not work properly, and the smaller BEI trading zone is under the reign of monopoly.

MEMO #1 (07/2019, en)

June 27, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Electricity Market Opening – assessment of latest regulations

Before the deadline for electricity market opening, Ukraine’s official work hard to patch the holes in the upcoming regulatory framework. Does it help or constraints the future market?

Market Opening: Latest Regulations (06/27/2019, PB, en)

June 26, 2019 — Policy Paper

Ukraine on the way to a functioning electricity market

Main features of a successful electricity market based on the 20 years’ history in opening the EU electricity market. Lessons learnt and best practises for the Ukrainian context.

Functioning electricity market (06/26/2019, PP, en)

June 21, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Promoting structural change in Ukrainian coal regions

A successful structural change can avoid a negative impact on the labour market and trigger an economic shift towards a more future-oriented industry.

Structural change in coal regions (06/21/2019, PB, en)

May 28, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Summary: Risks of opening the Ukrainian Electricity Market

Ukraine is about to liberalise its electricity market. Yet the devil is in the details: the rules are far from perfect and key players are not ready. What are the risks?

Summary Market Opening Risks (05/28/2019, PB, en)

May 28, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Analysis: Risks of opening the Ukrainian Electricity Market

The market opening on July 1st may have negative impact on final prices for industries and economy as a whole. With little time left, at least critical risks should be mitigated.

Analysis Market Opening Risks (05/28/2019, PB, en)

May 7, 2019 — Policy Note

Challenges of the Electricity Market Reform

Analysis of implementation challenges related to wholesale market reform, in particular preparation, coordination, issues of market design, concentration and liquidity.

Electricity Market Reform (05/07/2019, PN, en)

May 7, 2019 — Policy Note

Debts in the Ukrainian Electricity System

Accumulated debt poses a major obstacle on the way towards a new electricity market. A solution to this problem needs to be found before the new market design is introduced.

Debts in the Electricity System (05/07/2019, PN, en)

April 17, 2019 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Feb-Apr 2019

Developments on the law introducing RES-e auctions, launch of daily balancing on gas market and Naftogaz issues. Deep dives into the issue of debts in the Ukrainian electricity system and progress with electricity market reform.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (04/2019, en)

March 29, 2019 — Policy Briefing

RES auctions in Ukraine Quota Sizing

25% of electricity generation can come from Renewables in 2035 when annually installing around 500MW, what seems realistically as of today.

RES auctions: Quota Sizing (03/29/2019, PB, en)

March 28, 2019 — Policy Briefing

A Scenario based 2035 Forecast of Electricity Demand in Ukraine

Ukraine’s 2035 electricity demand is estimated based on GDP growth, electricity price and energy efficiency trajectories. Only in a high GDP growth scenario, demand increases substantially.

2035 Forecast of Electricity Demand (03/28/2019, PB, en)

March 28, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Local curtailment charges for RES

The concentration of wind and solar plants in high-yield regions increases balancing needs and grid constraints. We recommend introducing a transparent curtailment charge mechanism.

RES: Local curtailment charges (03/28/2019, PB, en)

March 25, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Energy and Climate Targets – An Overview

Key messages: Multitude of energy & climate obligations must be coordinatedRES share surpasses unambitious targetsDiffering indicators in national strategies – risk to cause confusionProgress in energy intensity – but still a long way aheadEmission targets are not ambitious

Energy and Climate Targets - An Overview (03/25/2019, PB, en)

March 8, 2019 — Policy Paper

Developing a National Energy and Climate Plan for Ukraine

The NECP is an opportunity for Ukraine to reflect on its key energy challenges. But its preparation is complex and requires strong political commitment.

Developing NECP (03/26/2019, PP, en)

February 20, 2019 — Policy Note

Ukraine’s National Energy and Climate Plan

Introduction to the development of National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) for Ukraine, namely timeline and structure of the document.

National Energy and Climate Plan (02/20/2019, PN, en)

February 20, 2019 — Policy Note

The Draft Law on Renewable Energy Sources

Recommendations: Dynamically adjusting FIT based on project duration. Incentives for a smart & grid-friendly location selection. FIT reduction in 2019 to contain costs.

Draft Law on RES (02/20/2019, PN, en)

January 30, 2019 — Policy Briefing

Stabilizing the support for renewables

Ukraine is about to adopt changes to the RE support law and introduce auction-based remuneration scheme. But is it not too late? Will the conservative changes to FIT help to contain the expensive boom?

Stabilizing support for renewables (01/30/2019, PB, en)

January 3, 2019 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Nov 18 – Jan 19

Changes in the environmental taxes and related challenges, new PSO rules on the gas market and supply billing issues. Deep dive into the draft law on new RES support scheme (auctions) and introduction to Ukraine’s National Energy and Climate Plan.

Quarterly Monitoring Report (01/2019, en)

November 8, 2018 — Quarterly Monitoring Report

Energy Strategy 2035. Implementation progress Jun-Oct 2018

Key Developments in Ukraine’s Energy Sector. Balancing Needs due to RES increase. Introducing the Low Carbon Ukraine Project

Quarterly Monitoring Report (11/2018, en)

November 2, 2018 — Policy Briefing

Exploiting benefits of small solar and biogas

Small renewables projects can have important side benefits. Well targeted feed-in tariffs can support a cost-efficient deployment.

Small solar and biogas benefits (12/21/2019, PB, en)

November 1, 2018 — Policy Paper

Balancing of fluctuating renewable power sources

Based on a LCU’s Optimised Dispatch Model (ODM), we assess that the current Ukrainian power system can balance fluctuations of up to 15 GW of wind and solar (in-depth analysis).

Fluctuating renewable power sources (11/29/2018, PP, en)

November 1, 2018 — Policy Briefing

Location selection and wind solar mix

Wind and solar installations should be distributed over the country. Policy should strive for an optimal mix of wind and solar installations in order to reduce system cost.

Wind-solar mix (12/04/2019, PB, en)

October 1, 2018 — Policy Briefing

Balancing Renewables in Ukraine

Based on a LCU’s Optimised Dispatch Model (ODM), we assess that the current Ukrainian power system can balance fluctuations of up to 15 GW of wind and solar (overview of results).

Balancing Renewables (11/29/2019, PB, en)

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