Ukraine risks significantly falling behind on implementing the National Emission Reduction Plan (NERP), a binding obligation towards the Energy Community (EnC). A debate about a possible revision of the NERP has started in Ukraine but so far focuses on relaxing the requirements of the NERP, including the deadlines already extended especially for Ukraine.
This paper considers the potential for decarbonizing Ukraine’s steel sector and gives policy recommendations that take into account the challenging international environment Ukraine’s steel sector finds itself in.
We propose regulatory changes that would reduce RES imbalances, ensure a more efficient dispatch of Ukraine’s electricity system and hence reduce the need for costly balancing energy.
Curtailing and compensating RES can be cheaper than taking up 100% of RES electricity through investment into conventional plant park or transmission.
Further RES expansion is needed to replace the ageing power plant fleet and to sustain energy security. To account for a higher variability in the system, different instruments can be utilized.
Different sets of RES quotas are analyzed. In the best-case scenario, 3 GW wind & solar are built and RES quotas set at 1.6 GW, enabling a RES share above 20% in 2025.
Curtailment should be considered as a regular flexibility option. It helps to mitigate the green-coal paradox and to reduce system emisions from 94 to 40 Mt CO2.
The Ukrainian electricity system can absorb fluctuations of higher RES shares and support a further expansion with RES auctions.
The rising cost of RE support pushes electricity prices beyond affordable level in Ukraine. Yet the revision of the established FIT scheme should be carefully designed and consider potential risks.
Analysis of curtailment as a flexibility option in the short and long run, including mitigation of the ‘green-coal paradox’ and comparison with hardware solutions. Overview of curtailment experiences across the world.
25% of electricity generation can come from Renewables in 2035 when annually installing around 500MW, what seems realistically as of today.
The concentration of wind and solar plants in high-yield regions increases balancing needs and grid constraints. We recommend introducing a transparent curtailment charge mechanism.
Recommendations: Dynamically adjusting FIT based on project duration. Incentives for a smart & grid-friendly location selection. FIT reduction in 2019 to contain costs.
Ukraine is about to adopt changes to the RE support law and introduce auction-based remuneration scheme. But is it not too late? Will the conservative changes to FIT help to contain the expensive boom?
Small renewables projects can have important side benefits. Well targeted feed-in tariffs can support a cost-efficient deployment.
Based on a LCU’s Optimised Dispatch Model (ODM), we assess that the current Ukrainian power system can balance fluctuations of up to 15 GW of wind and solar (in-depth analysis).
Wind and solar installations should be distributed over the country. Policy should strive for an optimal mix of wind and solar installations in order to reduce system cost.
Based on a LCU’s Optimised Dispatch Model (ODM), we assess that the current Ukrainian power system can balance fluctuations of up to 15 GW of wind and solar (overview of results).